By Scott Moritz

With clouds of economic gloom darkening the tech horizon, mobile phone sales – a former bright spot in the gadget world – look to be slowing.

Tech buyers went away early this fall, and as recession fears intensified, orders have continued to dry up.

There have been a number of ominous signs. First Cisco (CSCO) slashed its outlook and froze hiring. Then Wall Street analysts slashed Google’s (GOOG) search ad sales estimates, predicting the first ever drop off in the company’s growth rate.

Now, market analysts at Gartner have peered ahead into future and declared cell phone sales will likely slow from 2008 levels by 1% to 4%. This would be the first year-over-year slowdown since 2001.

“It is too early to say how long the economic climate will impact the devices market, but we expect market conditions to remain challenging through at least the first half of 2009,” Gartner analyst Carolina Milanesi said in a statement Tuesday.

A low single digit drop in sales certainly isn’t a steep fall and hardly a surprise in light of recent downward adjustments from wireless phone giants Nokia (NOK) and Samsung. But no growth in 2009 would be a major milepost given how newer markets like Brazil, Russia and Asia have been providing plenty of worldwide demand. And in mature markets like Europe and the U.S., smartphone sales are surging, fueled by touchscreens like Apple’s iPhone and Research in Motion’s new BlackBerry Storm.

Gartner now predicts mobile phone sales will hit a growth rate of 8% this year, down from the 15% level in 2007.

By Scott Moritz

With touchscreen phones all the rage, and U.S. telcos following AT&T’s (T) lead of cutting the price of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, it would seem Nokia (NOK) will be left out of the smartphone party this year.

The Finnish phone giant won’t have its closely-watched 5800 phone – Nokia’s music-loaded take on the iPhone – available here until sometime in the first half of next year, according to people familiar with the phone. Nokia wasn’t immediately available for comment.

And even when it arrives, Nokia has lacked a big U.S. phone partner that would provide the subsidy necessary to put it under the $200 range. At full price, it will have a hard time making a big splash.

“You could look at it as having a 100% upside,” says Nielson IAG analyst Roger Entner, referring to Nokia’s measly share of the U.S. market. Make that a potential upside of 95.5% since Nokia’s slice of the U.S. market has now fallen a percentage point from year-ago levels to 4.5%.

These numbers were part of Nokia’s overall solid third-quarter performance reported Thursday. Nokia posted an adjusted profit of 44 cents a share, down from the 55 cents it netted last year, but in line with analysts estimates. Sales fell 5% to $16.4 billion from $17.3 billion in the year-ago quarter and below the $17.2 billion street estimate.

After hitting a new four-year low, Nokia shares rebounded a bit Thursday up 4% as investors took some confidence from the fact that it met estimates.

As Nokia predicted, its worldwide market share fell to 38% in the third quarter from 40% in the prior period. The decline, according to Nokia, reflects the company’s unwillingness to cut phone prices amid a heated price war in some regions.

Nokia has managed to grab and hold onto the No.1 phone supplier position by honing its skills at making low- and medium-priced phones for a global audience. This focus on the mainstream has caused Nokia to be consistently late to fashion trends like flip phones, ultrathin designs and now touchscreens.

After a strong start in the smartphone wars with over half the global market in 2007, Nokia has dropped to a 35% slice in the third quarter from 48% of the market in the second quarter, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Jim Dawson. The alarming sequential drop is a reflection of how strong rivals like Apple and Research in Motion (RIMM) have grown. The smartphone market will get a new challenger later this month with the arrival of Google’s (GOOG) Android-powered G1 phone at T-Mobile.

But while 2008 is not going to be a big year here for Nokia, the trends – aside from the slumping global economy – are promising overall.

Each player comes from with a different specialty to the smartphone market, says Entner. Apple and Google aim for a strong Internet experience and RIM’s BlackBerry Storm hopes to capitalizes on its successful e-mail background with a touchscreen design. “Nokia comes from a mobile phone approach,” says Entner.

“Nokia sees the phone as an integrated device.” says Entner. In the past three years, Nokia has acquired mobile e-mail shop Intellisync, GPS mapper Navteq and digital media delivery system Loudeye in an effort to control the delivery of services like e-mail, navigation, photography, music, videos, games and the Internet. 

Of course, all this will matter more in the U.S. when Nokia can deliver the device.

By Michal Lev-Ram

As cameras, MP3 players and text messaging become must-haves on cell phones, one startup is bucking the trend by going back to the basics.

Peek, a New York-based company, will soon launch a mobile device that has only one function – e-mail. In other words, the bare-bones gadget doesn’t take pictures, come with flashy graphics or even make calls. Given that you’ll still have to carry a cell phone, who would want to buy it? The so-called “soccer mom” demographic, says Amol Sarva, Peek’s founder and a former Virgin Mobile (VM) executive.

Sarva believe that middle-aged women with kids want to be able to access their e-mail while out and about, but don’t necessarily want all of the other fancy features packed into most smartphones. That’s why the device his company developed doesn’t do anything but e-mail. That’s also why it has soft, rubber keys specially designed for women’s fingernails. (Whether potential buyers will be attracted or turned off by such gender targeting is another matter.)

“The overwhelming temptation is always to add value by adding more features and functions into a device,” says Michael Gartenberg, VP of mobile strategy at research firm Jupiter Media. “But this philosophy of ‘less is more’ could be the correct approach for a more mainstream demographic.”

An estimated 14% of cell phone users access e-mail on their mobile device, according to research firm ComScore M:Metrics. But most of them are corporate employees who already have BlackBerries or other smartphones. Peek is hoping to attract a less tech-savvy crowd – the kind of people who don’t know their IMAP (a way of transferring e-mail from a server to a device) from their POP (another way to do the same thing).

Of course, to reach a more mainstream demographic, the price has to be right. The Peek (which comes in cherry, aqua and grey) will cost $100, with a flat monthly fee of $20. Sarva says the device runs on T-Mobile’s nationwide network, though customers won’t need to deal with the carrier. Even better, they won’t need to sign a contract. Peek will be sold in Target stores nationwide starting in mid-September, and customers will pay for the monthly service by credit card, either online or via the device, directly to Peek.

To start sending and receiving messages on the device, all they’ll need to do is enter their e-mail address and password (you can get up to three accounts on one device, including Gmail, Yahoo mail and AOL).

But will the Peek be a hit? Maybe, though it could be a hard sell for several reasons. Besides the challenge of finding an effective way to get the word out to its non-techie target demographic, Peek could face competition from ever-cheaper smartphones.

Devices like a Motorola’s (MOT) Q or Palm’s (PALM) Centro are now available for under $150, and they do a lot more than send e-mail. But Peek believes its target market doesn’t care about smartphones’ bells and whistles and don’t want to be tied to service contracts.