By Scott Moritz

Research in Motion (RIMM) takes the stage this week to preach to a gathering of its faithful in Florida during the Canadian company’s annual Wireless Enterprise Symposium. But just as the BlackBerry maker seems to be reaching the height of success, its flock may well start to stray.

Not only will followers be tempted by new devices like Apple’s (AAPL) forthcoming business-friendly iPhone, other sect members will face excommunication as cost-cutting initiatives sweep through the office ranks.

For now, however, it’s party time for RIM. A few highlights ahead for the week in Orlando include a performance by John Mayer, and even hotter, the unveiling of the company’s first 3G phone, the BlackBerry Bold.

These have been very good times for RIM. European sales have taken off as has the stock, up 81% over the past year, and hovering close to a one year high.

It’s been a good run, but now come a new set of threats.

Due to delays first reported by Fortune, the dazzling BlackBerry Bold will not be available in the United States until as late as August. This means Apple will beat RIM to the market in June with its 3G iPhone.

The hotly anticipated, speedier successor to the original iPhone will also have a deep price cut thanks to a planned subsidy by AT&T (T). The new iPhone is also designed for the sweetspot in smart phones - BlackBerry’s business e-mail niche. Apple says it will license software to allow the iPhone to work with Microsoft’s (MSFT) Exchange platform for office e-mail as well as calendar and contact syncing.

And according to Cisco (CSCO), the iPhone business plan seems to be marching along. On an earnings call with analysts last week, Cisco chief John Chambers said the new iPhone has some of Cisco’s office network security system loaded on. “The upcoming software version 2 for the iPhone incorporates Cisco’s VPN technology,” Chambers said.

Having the networking giant involved with Apple’s business play certainly can’t be comforting to RIM.

Another potentially unsettling development is Nokia’s (NOK) upcoming plan to offer a series of BlackBerry lookalikes through AT&T. The new phones, starting with the E71, will also work with Microsoft Exchange and use a Nokia managed e-mail server, a delivery and security system akin to the BlackBerry approach, says one source familiar with the plan.

BlackBerry fans have seen threats like this before. Good Technology had a popular business e-mail system favored by Palm (PALM) Treo users. Motorola (MOT) acquired Good in 2006, and so far has failed to make much added headway against RIM. If anything, RIM’s one-trick killer-app ability to deliver instant, secure e-mail has been extended beyond professionals to consumers attracted by the sleeker phone designs, GPS navigation, music players and cameras.

On Monday, RIM announced a plan to start a $150 million venture capital fund to spur development of applications on the BlackBerry platform. The move - made along with RBC and Thomson Reuters - is similar to the $100 million venture effort that Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers announced in March to develop software for Apple’s iPhone.

A good part of RIM’s success is reflected in the stock’s rise, which has so far defied the slowing economy and sluggish corporate information technology spending. But the new product delay coupled with arrival of Apple and Nokia’s BlackBerry killers, may challenge RIM’s perennial winner status.

To be sure, a lot can be made of BlackBerry’s huge sales opportunities overseas where RIM has a very good chance of repeating the business e-mail success it had in the United States. And some RIM analysts see some big promise in the a crop of new BlackBerries coming out in the coming months.

TD Newcrest analyst Chris Umiastowski points to two phones in the works that should help restart the BlackBerry sales cycle. One is a flip or clamshell styled phone code-named KickStart that will launch with T-Mobile this fall, Umiastowski wrote in a report. And the long awaited touchscreen answer to the iPhone, which is apparently dubbed Storm, is due out in late fall, he notes.

But there is a different sort of storm on the horizon, in the form of spending pressure. It used to be common practice amoung businesses to hand out BlackBerries to an entire staff of go-getters. But the devices are not cheap, about $200 and up, and the monthly service contracts, and revenue sharing payment to RIM are large numbers on the business expense list. Some companies looking to attack costs have targeted the BlackBerry line item.

Here’s one example: Honeywell (HON) has recently taken its belt tightening efforts in a notch and told employees in some units to prepare to turn in their BlackBerries.

Honeywell, an aerospace and electronics giant, isn’t exactly under the gun in terms of immediate economic pressure - the company increased it profits by 22% last quarter on 10% sales growth. The point being, if the strong players are looking for places to cut the fat, one can imagine how the budget police in industries like banking, airlines, autos might be viewing BlackBerries these days.

By Michal Lev-Ram

LAS VEGAS — While Apple’s iPhone wants to attract business users, Microsoft is desperately trying to move away from its “all work and no play” image.

On Tuesday the Redmond-based company unveiled an updated version of its mobile operating system that it hopes will make it more attractive to everyday consumers. Among the new “consumer-friendly” features on Windows Mobile 6.1 is easier navigation capabilities, an enhanced Internet Explorer mobile browser that lets users zoom in and out of pages and “threaded” text messages (which means users can keep track of texts to and from a particular contact like a chat conversation, a feature operating systems like the Palm OS have had for years).

Microsoft (MSFT) says it is determined to become the operating system of choice for both work and play. Its new Windows Mobile takes a few steps in the right direction, but it will take a lot more than a handful of minor upgrades for the company to change its all-business image. Unlike Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone, which is known as a consumer and entertainment-driven device, Windows Mobile phones have traditionally been geared for the corporate world.

Speaking at the CTIA wireless trade show in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Robert Bach, president of Microsoft’s entertainment and devices division, said he thinks that the company’s reputation as a “mobile solution for people at work” is changing.

The software giant’s Windows Mobile platform already powers a variety of smartphones like the Motorola (MOT) Q and Samsung’s Blackjack, and is on track to sell 20 million devices running on its operating system this year, according to the company. But using most of these phones feels more like using a mini version of Windows on a PC than playing around with an iPhone, the new poster child for consumer-centric cell phones.

Microsoft is making some headway into the non-business market, though it’s unclear whether this is a direct result of changes to its own software.

For the first time, music-phone maker Sony Ericsson is coming out with a Windows Mobile device. The new Sony phone has a much slicker look and feel than most Microsoft devices, but that’s because its Xperia X1 has a software “layer” that runs on top of Windows Mobile and allows for nine customizable panels to appear on the home screen, similar to the small icons on the iPhone interface. The upcoming smartphone, which won’t be in stores until the second half of 2008, is also a touchscreen device — a category that has been a big hit among consumers since Apple’s iPhone came out last year.

Microsoft is making other advances on the consumer front. The company recently bought Palo Alto, Calif.-based Danger, maker of the consumer-friendly Sidekick, which is sold by T-Mobile. But it’s not yet clear how the acquisition will play into Microsoft’s overall mobile strategy.

Of course, Apple has its own challenges convincing IT managers that its device is secure and practical enough for the corporate world. Which raises the question: Can one phone be all things to all people?

Microsoft seems to think so. Unlike Apple, its operating system runs on a variety of phones made by a variety of manufacturers, though currently most of these phones fit into the same business category. If the company wants to become all things to all users — if that’s even possible — than it will likely take more than new zooming features on its mobile Internet browser.

By Michal Lev-Ram

Is Motorola really considering getting rid of its cell phone business? Don’t count on it — at least not anytime soon. Despite mounting pressure from activist investor Carl Icahn to sell or spin off the money-losing division, the company still seems convinced it can revive the once high-flying division.

Since January, when it issued a vaguely-worded statement that it would explore “the structural and strategic realignment of its businesses,” Motorola has been been signaling it intends to hold on to the handset unit.

Case in point: At a recent Morgan Stanley technology conference, Motorola (MOT) chief executive Greg Brown said the key to a turnaround will be led by a new and improved lineup of phones.

“At the end of the day, I think that the recovery of that business will be primarily product portfolio led,” Brown said, adding that he is focused on bringing out a wide range of new devices across “different technologies, geographies, price points and tiers.”

Brown also told his audience that he is actively searching for an executive to run the company’s mobile devices business. “We want someone steeped with experience, ideally having some technology familiarity or orientation,” he said.

Brown himself has been running the handset unit since early February. The CEO says he now spends about 80% of his time on the division, which posted a fourth-quarter operating loss of $388 million in January

Some industry insiders say they’re not surprised.

“Their message has consistently been that they were going to fix it themselves,” says Robert Laikin, CEO of cell phone distributor Brightpoint (CELL). “I never thought they were going to sell it.”

Others say Motorola tried selling its mobile devices unit but couldn’t find any takers. According to recent reports, both LG and Sony Ericsson have said they are not interested in buying the cell phone business.

In the meantime, Icahn raised his stake in Motorola to 6.3%, up from 5%. Gearing up for the company’s annual shareholder meeting in May, Icahn is pushing to put four favored executives on the phonemaker’s board, including Keith Meister, who manages the shareholder’s various businesses. Icahn has said his proposed directors will “assist Motorola” in executing the company’s “long over due decision regarding the separation of its mobile devices business.”

Motorola has asked its shareholders to reject Icahn’s nominees. A company spokesperson also said Motorola continues to evaluate its options in regard to the cell phone business.

It’s clear Brown is trying to buy more time to clean up the mess himself. If the company’s mobile division is able to show signs of improvement, that will make it more attractive to potential buyers or partners. Then again, if Brown manages to revive the cell phone unit business himself, why he would want to get sell off his fixer-upper is finally starting to show signs of life again?

Either way, Motorola’s CEO acknowledges it could take into 2009 for the company to get back on track. By then, other phonemakers — including Nokia (NOK), Samsung, Sony Ericsson and LG — could continue to eat away at what’s left of Motorola’s worldwide and U.S. market share. As for Icahn, you can bet he’ll keep agitating.

By Michal Lev-Ram

Want to know what the cell phone of the future will look like? Nokia offered a glimpse Monday when it unveiled its new “Morph” concept phone, a solar-powered, self-cleaning and shape-shifting mobile device.

Based on the company’s research in nanotechnology — the science of building electronics at the subatomic level — the phone will be made out of material that can change into different shapes. In a video illustrating what Morph might someday be able to do, Nokia (NOK) shows the flexible device transforming from a traditional mobile phone with a detachable ear piece to a flat, paper-thin gadget and a wearable watch. It also shows the transparent, green device tapping solar energy, sensing chemical compounds in the air and repelling dirt particles.

According to Tapani Ryhanen, head of Nokia’s multimedia devices research, the company developed the Morph concept in collaboration with the University of Cambridge and has 18 of its own researchers working full-time on nanotechnology-based solutions.

But don’t put off buying a new phone just yet — Ryhanen says a Morph-like device is still at least 11 years away. What’s more, even when it does get out of the lab, it’s not clear exactly what it will look like.

“Our concept device is just to illustrate what this technology could mean, but most likely it is not exactly the device we will develop based on our work,” Ryhanen told Fortune.

Nokia’s not the only phonemaker turning to nanotechnology for future phones. Other companies, including Motorola (MOT), are also looking into the technology to help shape next-generation devices.

“In some way or another, many phone companies are involved in nanomaterials research,” says Pulickel Ajayan, a professor of engineering at Rice University and a pioneer in nanotechnology. Ajayan says nanomaterials can enable better screen resolution, increase processing power of memory devices like phones and enhance battery life. “I think that if all of these pieces are put together nanotechnology will be quite significant for mobile devices, as these are the basic components of phones — things like power, display and memory.”

Ajayan says we could see nanotechnology used in phone displays and energy storage in the next two to three years. But you’ll likely have to wait a lot longer for the luxury of turning your phone into a watch simply by placing it on your wrist and locking in its shape.

For now, you can check out the Morph concept phone on display at New York’s Museum of Modern Art on view until May 12 as part of the museum’s “Design and the Elastic Mind” exhibition.

By Michal Lev-Ram

Turns out those rumors swirling around Motorola might be true after all — or are they?

Late Thursday, Motorola (MOT) issued a press release saying it is “exploring the structural and strategic realignment of its businesses,” and that the company’s options may include the “separation of mobile devices from its other businesses.” (Put it in plain English, Motorola is considering selling its flailing cell phone unit). But statement also noted that “there can be no assurance that any transaction will occur or, if one is undertaken, its terms or timing.” Motorola’s VP of mergers and acquisitions, Don McLellan, meanwhile told Fortune on Thursday that the company wasn’t committing to making any big changes, only that the exploration of its options would be done “expeditiously.”

So what exactly does Motorola’s equivocal wording mean?

Well, the ambiguity could be a stalling tactic to get rebellious shareholders like Carl Icahn off the company’s back, at least temporarily. Icahn, the phonemaker’s third-largest shareholder, recently argued that selling off Motorola’s handset business would produce almost $20 billion of additional shareholder value. Shortly after Motorola’s made its announcement, Icahn issued his own statement, saying that while he was pleased to see Motorola finally considering splitting up its mobile device unit, he had no intention of changing his game plan.

“We have previously informed Motorola that we expect to run a slate of directors for the upcoming annual meeting and this announcement by Motorola will not deter us from that effort,” Icahn said. “We believe that Motorola is finally moving in the right direction but certainly still has a long way to go.”

McLellan acknowledged Motorola’s stock “is  dramatically undervalued. And that’s unacceptable to all concerned.”

Motorola’s shares rose more than 10 percent in after-hours trading.

But Motorola will have to do much more than “explore” to get its stock to appreciate enough to appease Icahn.  Plus, it’s now got thousands of employees who are likely worrying about their fate if the company does eventually decide to sell or spin off its handset business.

Don’t cry for Motorola just yet, though. While its mobile phone business is the most public face of the company and accounts for about half of its revenues, it is actually just one of three business groups. The company also sells radios to governments and makes cellular infrastructure equipment and set-top boxes, which it sells to cable companies. And unlike its cell phone unit — which incurred an operating loss of $138 million last quarter and has been rapidly losing market share — some of these other businesses are actually showing healthy growth.

By Michal Lev-Ram

Last year Samsung overtook Motorola (MOT) as the second-largest phone manufacturer. Now, the flailing Razr-maker risks ceding third place to Sony Ericsson. Ouch.

On Wednesday morning, Motorola released yet another round of disappointing earnings — profit from continuing operations fell to $111 million from the year-ago $523 million, as handset sales plunged 38 percent. Motorola shares quickly fell and were down more than 17 percent by late morning.

In his first earnings report as acting CEO, Motorola’s Greg Brown told analysts that the mobile devices unit “remains challenged.” What’s more, Brown warned it would likely be into 2009 before Motorola has a “robust and competitive portfolio.”

Enter Sony Ericsson, the No. 4 handset manufacturer.

The London-based joint venture between Japan’s Sony (SNE) and Sweden’s Ericsson (ERIC) hasn’t exactly been showing explosive growth, but it has been steadily advancing: Just last week the company announced it had increased its year-over-year handset shipments by 18 percent. And, while Sony Ericsson’s profit declined — fourth quarter 2007 net income was about $541 million, down from $648 million last year — the drop was due mostly to new, lower-priced handsets in its product portfolio.

Bottom line, if Motorola keeps stumbling and Sony Ericsson marches on, their market positions could soon be reversed. “If Motorola doesn’t bring something entirely new by 2009, you will probably see the switch happening by then,” says Ping Zhao, a telecom analyst with Credit Sights.

Sony Ericsson’s global market share stood at 8.8 percent in the third quarter of 2007, according to technology research firm iSuppli. At the same time, Motorola’s market share slid to 12.7 percent (considerably down from its Q4 2006 height of 22.6 percent). If Sony Ericsson’s plan to make an aggressive push into the United States is successful, it will likely snag even more market share from Motorola, especially considering its multimedia device lineup — much of which is not yet available in the United States — is superior.

Sony Ericsson’s new president, Hideki Komiyama, has publicly said his company’s target is to become one of the top three players in the industry. At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas earlier this month, Komiyama said he plans to introduce the widest range yet of Sony Ericsson phones in the United States this year. “This is the year for the U.S. market,” Komiyama said in an interview on the show floor in early January.

Sony Ericsson’s multimedia phones — mainly its Cybershot camera phones and Walkman music devices — are already popular overseas. But because the company makes GSM devices, it has yet to make a dent in the CDMA-heavy U.S. market. The new phones it plans to introduce later this year will be optimized for U.S. networks. The company also said it plans to launch a music phone campaign this summer and push its Cybershot phones in the 2008 holiday season.

Motorola also unveiled several new multimedia devices at CES — including the video-centric Moto Z10 and the Rokr E8 music phone — but Credit Sight’s Zhao was unimpressed.

“We haven’t seen some brand new ideas out of that company for a while,” says Zhao. “My opinion is that the company will continue to lose market share through 2008 — there’s no new product to drag them out of not losing market share.”

By Michal Lev-Ram

LAS VEGAS — At a press event complete with white leather couches, muted blue lights and refreshments like cotton candy and mini hamburgers (hey, it’s Vegas), Motorola on Sunday night unveiled two new multimedia phones it hopes will help put the company back on the cutting edge.

But neither device seemed quite as revolutionary as the Razr did in 2004. Then again, maybe it’s time we stopped expecting another Razr from Motorola (MOT). After all, apart from Apple (AAPL), no other phonemaker has since created a phone as sharp as the ultra-thin clamshell.

Motorola’s new focus is making advanced multimedia phones for what it calls the “C generation,” not bringing out new iterations of the same phone whose success it milked for way too long.

And just who exactly is the “C generation,” you may ask?

“They’re the most mobile and socially connected generation this world has ever seen,” said Jeremy Dale, the company’s head of global marketing, at Vegas’ posh Wynn Hotel. “From a marketing viewpoint these are the people we’ve been waiting for.”

Even if you’re not part of this so-called Generation C (I’m now completely confused as to which generation I belong to — I thought we were on the X’s and Y’z, not at the beginning of the alphabet), Motorola’s new Z10 handset, one of two new phones the company plans to launch later this quarter, is worth checking out. Made for “filmmaking on the fly,” the device lets people capture video and gives them relatively advanced tools to edit their footage. The quad band GSM phone has a sleek “kick slide” form factor, a 16 million color display, 3D stereo sound and a 2.2” QVGA screen that displays video at 30 frames per second. It will also let users upload their edited videos directly to content sharing sites like YouTube.

“You can film 24 hours of video on this device,” said Dale, whose presentation of the Z10 included showing a movie clip of his “Gen C” nephew hanging around Las Vegas, which he said had been taken and edited entirely with the tools available on the new phone.

The second phone in Motorola’s new lineup is the Rokr E8 (photo above). Though the company’s Rokr line of music phones has failed to gain much traction in the United States, it’s becoming popular in China. The newest Rokr is an improvement in design and combines several new technologies: It sports a smooth, glasslike surface that lights up depending on how you want to use it — as a phone, camera or music player. For example, when you use it as a music phone, the device’s numerical keys disappear and all you can see are its play, pause and other music commands. If you receive a phone call while listening to music, though, the device automatically switches back to phone mode.

The updated handset also features new “fastscroll” navigation wheel and “haptics” touch technology which is supposed to give tactile feedback by vibrating slightly when keys are pressed (the sensation is a little difficult to get used to). Motorola, which runs its own music store in China, also announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Asian music provider Soundbuzz. That, says the company, will let it to eventually spread its music offering to India and other Asian countries.

“This is the year when the Rokr music phones really come into their own,” said Dale.

Motorola has disappointed investors by not offering any real alternatives to the Razr line of phones in recent years. As a result of four quarters of disappointing earnings, Motorola’s chief executive Ed Zander left the company late last year. His CTO, Padmasree Warrior, then departed for a post at Cisco Systems. Many analysts say it will likely be at least a year before the struggling phonemaker is back on track, and some have even hinted that the company may look at restructuring and possibly even selling off its handset business altogether.

Unfortunately, two multimedia devices — however cool — don’t equal a comeback. But they are a step in the right direction. It’s doubtful that either the Z10 or Rokr E8 will ever gain the cult following of a Razr or an iPhone, but, for the first time in several years, it appears Motorola has some real contenders in the game.

By Michal Lev-Ram

LAS VEGAS — While Korean mobile phone manufacturers LG and Samsung Electronics made significant headway in mobile sales last year, they’ve come empty-handed to the Consumer Electronics Show, a showcase for companies to introduce their hottest new gadgets.

Ehtisham Rabbani, vice president VP of product strategy and marketing for LG’s mobile phone business, said cell phone sales rose 28 percent in 2007 but he was vague about what new mobile gadgets consumers could expect to see in 2008.

“We plan to keep doing what we’ve been doing in 2007,” says Rabbani.

Samsung, meanwhile, will unveil plenty of consumer electronics like Wi-Fi enabled HD video camera and new flat screen televisions in Las Vegas, but the only “new” phones were new only to the U.S. market as they’d already been introduced in other countries.

In 2007, LG — the fifth largest mobile phonemaker — unveiled two new touchscreen devices, the Venus and Voyager. Samsung, meanwhile, overtook Motorola (MOT) as the No. 2 cell phonemaker in the world late last year behind Nokia.

“Samsung gained a lot this year partly because Motorola has been doing so poorly,” says Tina Teng, a wireless analyst with technology research firm iSuppli. “It’s a big win for them.”

Teng says that in addition to Samsung benefiting from Motorola’s recent poor performance, the Korean company also prospered by concentrating on mid-to-high range handsets to gain market share in a highly profitable segment. She says Samsung is now the No. 2 player in the European market — Nokia’s (NOK) home turf. Key to Samsung’s success there has been stylish, multimedia-centric mobile phones.

Both Korean phonemakers could have an advantage over Motorola in the fast-growing Indian market because they already have brand recognition in that country due to their lines of household appliances like refrigerators, televisions, and washing machines.

While Samsung’s market share has been growing in Europe and Asia, it has yet to have a big hit in the U.S. market. And LG, while strong in sales of CDMA phones sold primariy in the U.S., Japan and Korea, it’s weak in development of the GSM phones used in most countries.

By Michal Lev-Ram

Remember when phone companies just made phones? That strategy no longer works in today’s Internet-accessing, mobile-gaming and MP3-playing world - and it definitely won’t work in 2008. That’s why Nokia (NOK), the world’s largest phone manufacturer, is in the midst of a reorganization it says will help the company grow beyond phones and cellular equipment. The new corporate structure, which takes effect January 1, 2008, will divide the Finland-based company into three main units: Devices, services and software and markets. It’s the services and software part that stands out for a phone manufacturer - typically more concerned with churning out devices than with providing services.

But the reorg is just part of newish CEO Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo’s overall strategy of morphing Nokia into a mobile Internet company, not just a phonemaker.

“The convergence of the mobile communications and Internet industries is opening up new growth opportunities for us, both in the devices business as well as in consumer Internet services and enterprise solutions,” Kallasvuo said last June when he first announced the reorg. Since he took on the chief executive role in 2006, Kallasvuo’s already led Nokia through several software and services-related acquisitions - including digital mapmaking giant Navteq, photo-sharing service Twango and Avvenu, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based company that lets users access content on their PC via cell phone. He’s also announced the launch of Ovi (which means “door” in Finnish), a one-stop Web portal which will combine Nokia’s various mapping, music, gaming and other mobile services. Some Ovi offerings are already available to wireless users in the United Kingdom, but recent software delays (welcome to the biz, Nokia) have forced the company to postpone the launch of one of its most anticipated services - a mobile gaming platform called N-Gage.

The shifting focus on software rather than pure hardware is a big step for the wireless industry. What’s more, it’s being pushed forward by many different types of companies (not just mobile operators) and could therefore end up driving competition and, ultimately, improving the consumer experience. But according to iSuppli analyst Tina Teng, the move is nothing new for Nokia.

“Nokia’s been doing this for a long time, and this is just the next step in moving beyond the devices themselves,” says Teng, who adds that the company’s music service in particular could be a game changer and a threat to carrier-operated stores, much like Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes. “Just look at what Apple did with their Wi-Fi enabled iPhones - you don’t have to go through the cellular networks to download music anymore.”

Speaking of Apple - the extension to software and services also means that Nokia’s circle of competitors is also growing. Once restricted to traditional phonemakers like Motorola (MOT) and Samsung, the company could soon find itself neck-and-neck with cellular operators who would rather sell their own branded services, Internet-centric companies like Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO) and mobile newcomers like, you guessed it, Apple. That’s probably why, as part of Nokia’s upcoming reorg, its new chief technology officer Bob Iannucci will be based in Palo Alto, the heart of Silicon Valley, and not in the company’s Finnish motherland.

Of course, while the demand for rich mobile experiences like location-based navigation applications, mobile Web access and on-the-go gaming is growing in many developed countries, lots of people - about 50 percent of the world’s population - are still just waiting to get their hands on their first cell phone. That means that Nokia still needs to focus on spreading and improving its physical goods. Sure, with an estimated 39 percent global market share the company’s the largest phone manufacturer in the world, but, as Motorola recently demonstrated the tables can turn much faster than you think - one minute you’re riding high on the Razr’s success, the next you’re posting a $138 million quarterly loss on your handset business.

As for Nokia, it will be a while before the results of the company’s reorg can be measured. For now, the Finnish phonemaker just needs to kick the door open - by launching Ovi, that is.

By Michal Lev-Ram

Half the world doesn’t even own a mobile phone but wireless carriers are already fighting over the next-generation cellular network.

Consumers may care less about whether they’ll be using WiMAX, LTE or UMB to download video to their phones or browse the Web faster than ever before. But one by one, mobile operators are aligning themselves with one of these competing next-generation, or 4G, technologies, placing billion-dollar bets on the horse they hope will win the race.

All three of the dueling technologies are Internet Protocol-based and tailored for mobile television, video chat and other data services that eat up a lot of bandwidth.

The first of these technologies to hit prime time will be WiMax, which Sprint (S) is expected to soon launch in three trial markets — Chicago, Washington D.C. and Baltimore. By the end of 2008 the company says it will reach 100 million people with its new network. Motorola (MOT), one of the suppliers of infrastructure equipment — and eventually WiMax-enabled phones — for Sprint’s upcoming service, says it has signed 15 contracts for commercial WiMax networks.

“We’re driving it at about twice the pace of traditional cellular technologies,” Fred Wright, senior VP of Motorola’s home and networks mobility unit, told reporters earlier this week.

WiMax proponents claim that the technology is superior to other 4G standards because it’s faster and more affordable. But Philip Solis, an analyst with New York-based ABI Research, says all 4G networks are more or less created equal.

“The three major 4G technologies are pretty much on par with each other,” says Solis, though he adds that WiMax has already been standardized and deployed.

That didn’t stop Verizon Wireless (VZ) from picking LTE — Long Term Evolution. Solis says LTE isn’t expected to become widely available until 2010, but Verizon says it chose the technology partly because the roaming potential it will have with Vodafone. The British company owns a 40 percent stake in Verizon and has already chosen LTE as its next generation technology.

Although the two largest CDMA carriers in the United States have picked opposing 4G technologies, Motorola’s Wright says that won’t slow adoption of next-gen networks.

“There’s probably more industry confusion that was created than anything else,” he says.

The U.S.’s No. 1 wireless carrier, AT&T (T), has not decided which 4G network it will deploy.

In addition to WiMAX and LTE, AT&T has yet another technology to choose from — Qualcomm’s (QCOM) UMB, or Ultra Mobile Broadband. So far, though, no mobile operator has committed to UBM.

But the bigger question — beyond whether the 4G network of choice will be WiMAX, LTE or UMB –– is whether consumers are as hungry for wireless broadband as carriers think they are.

“We’re all hoping they’ll want to watch TV on their cell phones,” says Qualcomm executive Joe Lawrence.