Tech comes back, for now
By Scott Moritz
Three of tech investors’ favorite horses - Google (GOOG), Research in Motion (RIMM) and Apple (AAPL) - which led the stampede out of the Nasdaq Monday, came rushing back a bit Tuesday.
Panic sellers who sent the Nasdaq down 9%, its steepest one-day drop since the Internet bubble burst in 2000, were replaced by bargain hunters Tuesday. In mid-day trading Google shares were up 8% and RIM’s stock bounced 10%. Apple was up 5%, while the Nasdaq as a whole rose 3%.
Apple was one of the biggest losers Monday, falling18% after two analysts downgraded the stock on fears that Mac sales were going the way of the rest of the PC market. FORTUNE’s Philip Elmer-Dewitt, however, pointed out that some of the gloomy predictions were based on a survey of business IT buyers, not quite Apple’s core market.
Other analysts came to Apple’s defense Tuesday. Goldman Sachs’ David Bailey reiterated his buy rating saying the stock was oversold.
“We think yesterday’s 18% decline more than captures the concerns over Mac growth in a weakening spending environment, making Apple shares attractive at current levels,” Bailey wrote.
Monday’s broad selloff, and in particular the Nasdaq’s plunge, kicked into high gear after lawmakers failed to pass a Wall Street bailout bill. Amid fears that the current credit crunch could push the economy into a deep recession, not even the tech sector’s lack of debt and strong cash position were enough to keep panicky investors from bailing.
Tuesday’s rebound offered some solace, but as Monday’s collapse showed, tech is along for Wall Street’s ride, like it or not.
Apple bruised in downgrades
By Scott Moritz
Apple (AAPL) got hit with a pair of downgrades Monday as analysts see a weaker consumer taking a big bite out of the computer-maker’s growth rate.
RBC and Morgan Stanley analysts slapped Apple with neutral ratings, down from buy, on concerns that the slumping economy will put a chill on sales of Mac notebooks and desktop computers.
Citing a IQ/Changewave survey, RBC noted that 40% of consumers questioned said they “plan on spending less on electronics in the next 90 days,” RBC analyst Mike Abramsky wrote in the note. This is the weakest outlook ever measured in these surveys, Abramsky wrote.
Apple shares fell 16% in morning trading Monday in the wake of the reports, as investors get a sobering view of how popular consumer devices can lose momentum in a faltering economy.
The growing credit crisis has helped deflate consumer confidence and force delays in purchases of items like new computers and flat-screen TVs. The problem for Apple, writes Kathryn Huberty in a downgrade of Apple to neutral Monday, is that not only is PC sales growth slowing but the one area shrinking less is the under-$1,000 price range where Apple is absent.
Add the slowdown in PC sales to the higher costs of iPhone production, and Huberty says there will be a dramatic drop in Apple’s profit growth. Huberty cut her Apple earnings growth projection for the year to 6%, well below the 9% analysts’ consensus average.
Apple is not recession proof, RBC’s Abramsky writes.
Not surprisingly, investors have taken flight from stocks in some of the stronger players as the market jitters spread across nearly all sectors. Apple shares are down 35% and smartphone rival Research in Motion (RIMM) is down 47% in the past month.
RIM’s disappointing outlook Thursday confirmed that the once hot smartphone segment is cooling just as the larger mobile phone market grinds into slow gear, not just in the U.S., but globally as Nokia (NOK) recently pointed out.
The Google phone upclose and personal
By Scott Moritz
NEW YORK – A brief hands-on experience with the Google (GOOG) G1 phone gives the impression that after a slew of touchscreen duds from other telcos, Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone finally has a worthy rival.
The highly-anticipated HTC phone for T-Mobile (DT) was unveiled in New York Tuesday, and kiosks with technical experts were set up so media people could run the first Android-powered phone through some tricks. T-Mobile will start selling the phone Oct. 22 for $179 with a two-year contract.
The G1 has a large touchscreen, nearly the same size as the iPhone. But unlike the iPhone, there is a physical keyboard under the slide-open screen. People familiar with the iPhone will find the G1 a little lighter and thicker. The G1, for you ultra-thin fans, is about 3/4 of an inch thick, downright portly compared to the svelte half-inch iPhone.
Navigating the screen is fairly easy and there are several ways to move around. The touchscreen has a swipe capability that allows you to flick up and down or side to side. There is also a small trackball-type button at the bottom of the phone for scrolling.
The 3G network coverage at the show – only 16 cities currently have T-Mobile’s 3G networks – was fast. Google’s homepage loaded in five seconds and Google search results also popped up in five seconds. Sites like CNNMoney and Fortune took about 17 seconds to load. That is a fairly standard 3G speed.
Calls worked, and the sound was clear, for those considering the device as a phone primarily.
It is clear, however, that with Google’s support, Android and HTC have made a solid Internet device that combines web access with technology like GPS and software like Google Maps. Applications like Compass Mode, as Fortune’s Philip Elmer-Dewitt explains, gives you a 360-degree street view, a trick that has been limited to PCs until now.
The phone has so-called push e-mail through its Gmail service. As Fortune reported Monday, T-Mobile was considering a low-tier price plan that would give G1 users free e-mail without a data plan. T-Mobile technology chief Cole Brodman says the company looked at a few different pricing plans, but decided that the e-mail only data plan “doesn’t do the device justice.”
The G1 will have two monthly price options, $25 for data plan limited to 400 text messages or $35 for unlimited data. That’s compares with AT&T’s $30 and $45 data plans for the iPhone.
HTC’s touchscreen has some familiar features, like a shifting orientation if the user tips the phone on its side. It also has a zoom-in function that is done with plus and minus buttons on the screen rather than the two finger pinch or separate approach on the iPhone.
The G1 allows dragging and dropping of pictures and text, a feature the iPhone still lacks. The music player was easy to use and there is a direct link to Amazon’s music store.
Overall, and first impressions being what they are, the G1 stands well above disappointing touchscreens like Verizon’s (VZ) LG Voyager or Sprint’s (S) Samsung Instinct. And until Research in Motion (RIMM) delivers its touchscreen Storm BlackBerry, T-Mobile’s G1 is the toughest competition yet to the iconic iPhone.
MySpace music service to launch in September
HALF MOON BAY, Calif. – Social networking site MySpace will launch a new music service in September, CEO Chris DeWolfe announced at Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech conference on Wednesday.
The new offering will enable MySpace members to listen to free streaming music as well as purchase song downloads, ringtones, T-shirts and concert tickets, DeWolfe told an audience of tech executives during an interview with Fortune senior writer Adam Lashinsky.
MySpace – which was acquired by News Corp. (NWS) in 2005 – became a platform for bands to connect with their fans early on, and the company says that 65% of their members currently embed music on their profile pages. But rival social networking site Facebook has begun to overshadow MySpace. According to new numbers from metrics firm comScore, while MySpace still has more users, Facebook is growing at a faster rate. MySpace is hoping the new music service will boost growth.
“MySpace is more about self expression and individuality,” DeWolfe said when asked for his thoughts on Palo Alto-based Facebook. “One of the reasons why we’re investing so heavily in music is that self-expression and music go together so well.”
But MySpace isn’t the only company trying to find new ways to make money off the digital music industry, dominated by Apple’s (AAPL) iTunes.
Robert Kotick, chief executive of game publisher Activision Blizzard, said his company’s popular Guitar Hero game (which lets users play along to their favorite music by pressing colored buttons on a guitar-shaped controller) will soon start selling songs tracks via an iTunes-like music store.
“People are already coming to us for music,” said Kotick, whose Guitar Hero series has reportedly surpassed $1 billion in sales to date. Kotick said that he’s got four or five teams already working on the upcoming music store, but he also added that there are still kinks to work out when it comes to copyright-protection issues.
Nokia’s new mobile music model takes on Apple’s iPhone
By Michal Lev-Ram
Apple’s iPhone may reign over the fledgling mobile music market in the United States, but in the rest of the world Nokia is No. 1 on the hit parade.
Last year alone, Nokia (NOK) sold 147 million music-playing phones worldwide, while Apple’s (AAPL) sleek touchscreen has sold 5.7 million units so far this year. And although the iPhone is now the top-selling music phone in the U.S. market, it doesn’t even make the top five in Europe where three of Nokia’s music-playing handsets are best-sellers. Now the Finnish phonemaker plans to launch a new service later this year that will let people download as many songs as they want for a limited time.
Unlike the iPhone’s pay-per-track model, Nokia’s new “Comes With Music” plan will offer several handsets that include a year’s worth of unlimited music in the cost of the phone. Once the year is over, subscribers will be able to keep their existing tracks on their phone or PC, and Nokia says they’ll have several options of extending their “Comes With Music” membership without necessarily having to upgrade to a new device. The company is still mum on what those other options may be, though it’s likely customers will have to start paying a subscription fee to keep the unlimited downloads service.
“The track-by-track purchase methodology was cumbersome to people,” says Liz Schimel, head of Nokia’s music business. “Consumers were looking for a more seamless way to access a lot of content.”
Subscription-based, all-you-can-listen-to digital music models have been around for a while. Companies like U.K.-based Omnifone and Rhapsody offer similar services and for years rumors have circulated that Apple itself will launch a flat-rate, unlimited version of iTunes. But Nokia is the first mobile giant to turn away from the a-la-carte model of selling mobile music, and, unlike other existing subscription-based services, its will allow people to keep their tunes on their phone and PC even after their subscription expires.
Of course, while customers won’t have to worry about losing their music library, they also won’t be able to transfer their songs to a new device unless that new device is another “Comes With Music” Nokia phone.
The company plans to launch several compatible handsets, as current Nokia music phones won’t work with the upcoming service. It’s not clear how much built-in memory those new phones will have, but one of Nokia’s most popular multimedia phones on the market today is the N95, which, like the iPhone, comes in an 8-gigabyte version.
Lucky for the Finnish phonemaker, analysts say content providers are eager to experiment with new ways of getting their music onto cell phones.
“They [content providers] want to at least try to shift the center of gravity away from iTunes and Apple,” says Mark Donovan, a senior analyst with mobile research firm M:Metrics.
Two of the world’s largest music labels – Universal Music Group and Sony BMG – have already committed to “Comes with Music,” and the company expects more will sign on before the new service launches in the second half of this year.
Nokia won’t disclose the details of the new business model, or say how much the “Comes With Music” devices will cost. Some media reports have suggested the phonemaker is paying $35 to Universal alone for each handset it sells. With more labels expected to join the partnership, that could end up cutting into Nokia’s profit margins, though M:Metrics’ Donovan says he believes the company has figured out a model “that has legs.”
“The idea that they would pay Universal $35 a handset doesn’t smell good to me at all,” says Donovan. “But of course the devil will be in the details.”
Schimel, head of Nokia’s music business, says the company put a lot of energy into crafting a model that makes sense for everyone involved – the music labels, customers, carriers and Nokia itself. The result, she says, will be able to compete with lots of players on the marketplace, including Apple.
“The mobile industry as a whole has enormous potential in digital music but up until now it’s only been unlocked to a limited extent,” says Schimel, who would not disclose the specifics of the “Comes With Music” business model.
One thing Nokia has been clear about is that music and other services are an important part of its overall strategy. In 2006 the company acquired digital music player Loudeye, which enabled it to launch a pay-per-track mobile music store (similar to what’s currently available on the iPhone), now available in nine countries.
But it’s Nokia’s “Comes With Music” service that has the potential to disrupt the prevalent iTunes way of selling digital music – at least when it comes to mobile downloads.
Despite Apple’s dominance in MP3 player sales, Nokia’s got a global headstart when it comes to the mobile phone market. It’s got 40% of the global handset market and is especially strong in regions that have been quick to embrace mobile content, including China and Europe.
Of course, providing a viable competitor to Apple’s iTunes means succeeding in the U.S. market as well. Currently, Nokia has just 7% market share in the United States, and its total North America sales accounted for only 2.6% of its overall, global revenues.
Nokia’s Schimel says although it won’t be one of the launch markets Nokia has every intention of eventually bringing its “Comes With Music” service to the United States.
But it’s possible Apple will be pressured into change its tune — and offering a subscription-based iTunes service — long before that happens.
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