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April 16, 2008, 4:36 pm

eBay sales up 24%, but user growth is weak

By Michal Lev-Ram

Online auctioneer eBay reported first-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates Wednesday, citing strong growth in classified listings, expansion at PayPal and Skype and the company’s global business.

The San Jose, Calif.-based company said revenues rose 24% to $2.19 billion, up from $1.8 billion in the same period last year, and beating Wall Street’s expectations of $2.08 billion.

eBay’s (EBAY) net income came in at $460 million, or 34 cents a share, in the first quarter, up 22% from a year ago. Excluding certain one-time charges, profits rose to $562 million, or 42 cents a share, above analysts’ consensus estimates of 39 cents per share.

This was a very strong financial quarter for the company, said new eBay chief executive John Donahoe, who took over in March after longtime CEO Meg Whitman stepped down. The results reflect the strength provided by our diverse portfolio of businesses.”

Shares of eBay were largely unchanged after-hours. The stock finished the day up nearly 2% in regular trading on the Nasdaq.

“It was a case of they beat the numbers but it was anticipated,” said Piper Jaffray analyst Aaron Kessler.

Last January, eBay’s stock took a hit after its guidance fell below Wall Street’s estimates. And in February, eBay outraged some sellers when it reduced listing fees but increased the amount of money it takes out of each sale.

On a call with investors following Wednesday’s earnings release, eBay CEO Donahoe said he’s already seeing some positive momentum as a result of the restructured fee model.

“It’s only been about six weeks since the changes we announced have gone into place, but in both the U.S. and the U.K. we’re encouraged by the results we’re seeing,” said Donahoe.

According to the company, the number of listings on the site in the first quarter grew 10% from the prior year.

But the growth rate of the company’s gross merchandise volume, or the total dollar amount for items sold, is down, coming in at $16.04 billion — an increase of 12% over the first quarter of 2007 but down from the 14% growth seen in last year’s first quarter.

“Sustained GMV [gross merchandise volume] growth acceleration in eBay’s core U.S., UK and German markets is key, we believe, to the company’s fundamentals and stock price,” Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney said in a written report.

The growth rate of active eBay users is also down, coming in at 1% compared to 10% in the year-ago quarter. And according to a recent Nielsen Online report, Web traffic to eBay decreased three percent year-over-year.

New CEO Donahoe told investors that 2008 would be a year of “bold changes” for eBay. His three top priorities are making the company’s sites easier and safer to use, improving pricing and incentives and growing PayPal, an eBay subsidiary.

But, as the company’s CFO Bob Swan conceded, there’s still a lot of work to be done.

“For the remainder of 2008 we’ll continue to focus on the strategies we’ve put into motion,” Swan said in a written release.

For the second quarter, the company says it expects revenues in the range of $2.1 billion to $2.15 billion, roughly in line with current estimates of $2.11 billion. Profits, excluding charges, are expected to come in at 39 cents to 41 cents per share, also in line with analysts’ forecasts of 40 cents per share.

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I was once an aggressive buyer; but, now limit buying activity because:
1. eBay has jammed their site with too many peripheral eBay sales gimmicks that make the site too tiresome to navigate.
2. I have grown weary of dealing with sellers who exaggerate an item’s good points; yet conceal its flaws by omission. I have been stung too many time by this tactic.
In my opinion, eBay has no incentive to fix these problems and will continue to suffer a decrease of buyers until it is too late to revise its business model. ( See Article in Fortune, April 16, 2008 )

Posted By James Philadelphia, PA : July 15, 2008 2:13 pm

Honestly,
I dont feel a loyalty to Ebay. If another auction site came on I would list there also. Ebay needs to change its fees, feedback, policy and take care of its Sellers better.

Posted By albertohernandez chico ca : July 11, 2008 4:33 pm

Ebays managment simply has no idea what they are doing, they have alienated the hand that feeds them ,by changing the rules under which sellers operate.
I myself have been on ebay for years as a power seller , but now realize I have no future if i stay on ebay

Posted By Adam Salt Lake City Utah : May 29, 2008 11:46 pm

I too wish there could be competition for Ebay. They offer nothing for the huge profits they make. I would list many items for sale if their charges were not so outrageously high. I also feel they should have some responsibility for the “shady” sellers on ebay.

Posted By Dave, Whitehall,Mt. : April 16, 2008 11:54 pm

I AM EBAY SELLER. EBAY DO NOT CARE ABOUT SELLER. THEY ONLY CARE ABOUT BUYER. EBAY SUSPENDED YOUR ACCOUNT ANYTIME. WE LET YOU MAKE MONEY, NOT BUYER. BAD EBAY BUYER EVERYWHERE, EBAY IS SO KIND TO THEM, NOT SELLER. YES. EBAY IS MONOPOLY.

Posted By KATE ARCADIA CA : April 16, 2008 11:54 pm

I closed my EBay store. I am tired of ‘Fee-Bay’. My customers get a better deal and I make more money selling on my website.

Posted By Gary, Mission Viejo CA : April 16, 2008 10:29 pm

It’s pretty simple for me actually. I stopped buying things from Ebay as they have stopped being “deals” from pricate parties and it has become more commercial in nature. It used to be that there were bargains to be had, they are few and far between now. The folks that have spoiled this to a large degree are the folks that seem to track the value of virtually any item and then swoop in,suck up the item, then immediately resell it. It used to be semi-fun to shop Ebay looking for a deal but there are now too many folks trying to make a buck on Ebay in a “vulturistic” manner. It would be interesting if they made some type of holding period before the new buyer could resell and item, say 6 months, to make it painful enough to stop the practice.

Posted By Mark, Tampa Florida : April 16, 2008 10:24 pm

Greed Bay is only making more money by lifting fees on final sales. From our figures, the number of vistors to our ebay sites keeps falling, but our fees keep going up. Just view the ebay discussion boards and you will see a huge amount of comments on falling traffic and increasing fees which is making many sellers close shop.

Posted By pete, eddison, NJ : April 16, 2008 9:00 pm

You have to love a company that simply increases fees that aren’t really based on anything and people are impressed that their profits rise. Wait a few years til there is no one left on ebay.

Posted By Jack, Ridley Pa : April 16, 2008 8:34 pm

Well, my fees went up 25% so I guess I contributed to the ‘bottom line.’ Number is listings is irrelevant, it has been proven that eBay cooked the books with fake listings.

The key metrics are the flattening in growth of the GMV, the dollar value of all closed listings, whether the sales was completed or not. So, non-paying-bidders and fraud sales, such as the fake $3 million music collection count toward GMV. The flattening of growth is indicative of the lower conversion rate and departure of the ‘buzz’ eBay has depended on for over a decade.

Another key is the lack of growth in active users. An ‘active user’ is someone who has listed, bid or used BIN on ONE LISTING in the previous 12 months. Even with this low bar, eBay can’t show growth. Even with an intrusive and obnoxious advertising campaign on TV and the net. Nobody cares anymore.

If it wasn’t for PayPal, increased international trade because of favorable currency exchange rates, and, surprisingly enough, Skype, the 1st quarter would have sang a different tune.

The moral of the story? Diversify, monopolize and then, who cares if you ignore and torque off your key group of customers.

Posted By Terri, Kansas City, Missouri : April 16, 2008 8:21 pm

Wait until May’s changes take effect and have time to sink in and then see where they go.

Posted By Warren, Dale City, VA : April 16, 2008 8:17 pm

if they reduced charges, they’d increase GMV, and hence increase earnings and user growth long term. It’s the Laffer curve in action.

Posted By Kieran, Manchester, Greater Manchester : April 16, 2008 7:27 pm

Wish Google would create an auction site! Ebay need some competition. One of Ebays BIG problems right now is the total lack of security. There are so many bogus auction on Ebay. I’m a sophisticated buyer and seller. I sell over $10K/mth and I got caught up in a fraudulent laser engraver action.

Fully agree with this comment;

“Ebay is a monopoly with no scrupples. They treat their customers (the people who list merchandise on ebay) like dirt. They overcharge for their services, protect themselves, leave sellers vulnerable, and pay their own upper management vast riches, which they wallow in, like champagne in a bathtub. Shame!”

Posted By James Detroit, MI : April 16, 2008 7:25 pm

As a counter to Jim’s post — I am a frequent eBay buyer and sometime seller. I have found most eBay sellers to be rapacious unprincipled little greedheads who overcharge on shipping and handling. As a consequence, I have limited my buying to a few select sellers.

Posted By Tony, Herrin, IL : April 16, 2008 6:24 pm

Ebays “restructured fee model” is like pretty icing on a cardboard cake! What it give up front it takes away triple on the back. Ebay/Paypal, is in my opinion an illegal monopoly!

Posted By Sherry, Oregon City, Oregon : April 16, 2008 6:14 pm

Ebay is a monopoly with no scrupples. They treat their customers (the people who list merchandise on ebay) like dirt. They overcharge for their services, protect themselves, leave sellers vulnerable, and pay their own upper management vast riches, which they wallow in, like champagne in a bathtub. Shame!

Posted By Jim, Alexandria, Virginia : April 16, 2008 5:36 pm

Well duh… “In February, eBay outraged some sellers when it reduced listing fees but increased the amount of money it takes out of each sale.”… no wonder the numbers are better. And, I wonder how many sellers are listing personal items to offset higher prices of just about everything these days… probably beats having a garage sale.

Posted By MW, Chattanooga, TN : April 16, 2008 5:05 pm

I hope they get some (more) positive action on their share price. I still think they are undervalued even after the move up the last half month.

Harry “Search” Wang

Posted By Harry Wang, Omaha, NE : April 16, 2008 4:41 pm
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