Microsoft’s AOL or Microhoo?
By Josh Quittner
The idea that Microsoft would take Yahoo as its hapless partner has been discussed for years down in the Valley. But most of the folks I’ve talked to pretty much dismissed it as too wrong to contemplate. Even Microsoft, dissed by Valley Guys as not getting the Web (see previous column here), wouldn’t actually go through with it, Yahoo’s decent dowry notwithstanding.
Granted, this part of the world is unabashedly Google Country. Virtually any startup that’s hot right now (Facebook being the exception that proves the rule) is making its money in Google’s slipstream.
Microsoft (MSFT) does nothing for these people. So it’s an admittedly biased sampling. That explains, in part, why, when news of the Microsoft offer broke at dawn on the Pacific this morning, most of us awakened to hoots of derision, rather than the crowing of roosters.
The Valley view, then: Yahoo (YHOO) will be Microsoft’s AOL. Microsoft is paying too dearly for too little. When AOL and TimeWarner (TWX) merged, the Street went crazy with the wonderful possibilities that the synergy would bring: Combine AOL’s online reach with TimeWarner’s content? What a no-brainer! A no-brainer is right.
In the same way, this is a deal that smells right to the same crowd — Microsoft comes away with 30 percent of the search market and $1 billion in “cost synergies.” And, while the recession is already hitting advertising, we can assume that the online world will only benefit over time as the flow of ad dollars increases. But sniff deeper and longer, and this thing begins to be redolent of the AOL-TimeWarner “synergies” that at first appeared so sweet.
What exactly is Microsoft buying here? Technology? Yahoo has been managing a declining asset since Google invented a better way to do search, then figured out how to sell (And sell! And sell!) relevant ads against its superior results. Technologists? Talent has been fleeing Yahoo Central since Terry Semel got there — and the fact that co-founder Jerry Yang returned to get the company back on track hasn’t yet lured any of those Smart Dudes back. Nor will it: Smart techies only want to work for startups these days. And let’s not even talk about the clash of cultures that such a merger will surely create.
Nope—Microsoft is buying an empty bag. At the risk of climbing even further out on a limb here, let me make an alternative suggestion. Microsoft should move in the opposite direction: Unbundle what it already has. Get rid of everything that isn’t core! Microsoft is the monopoly provider of desktop operating systems. Guess what? It’s a great business! (Or would be if it did a better job of improving it rev to rev. Vista was a disgrace.)
Want to juice the stock price? Get rid of everything that’s unrelated to the business of improving the OS — search, xBox, Zune, etc. That OS, by the way, is quickly starting to move up into the cloud. It’ll be enough of a challenge to maintain Windows’s dominance as that happens.
It will take incredible focus and innovative thinking to maintain Windows. Don’t get distracted by Google (which, by the way, ought to get back to it’s knitting, too. Targeted search is a great business. Google (GOOG) ought to get out of everything else and it’s stock price would double.)
If we’ve learned one lesson during the past decade it’s this: Technology is changing so fast that the “synergy” that’s supposed to occur when massive companies merge simply doesn’t work. The Internet belongs to the small. Unbundle now — before it’s too late.
Is Yahoo for sale? Should Microsoft snap up Yahoo! in the largest takeover
of a California-based online leader in
the digital era?
Just can’t figure why an established yet tarnished icon such as Microsoft would look to Yahoo to reverse its fortunes. Perhaps the once mighty Gates empire has hit an iceberg and analyst are beginning to wonder if it’s taking on water. Perhaps reaching out to Yahoo offers it a chance to stay afloat while it reinvents itself. They had better be right: if the mega-merger should fail, there won’t be any Carpathia to pick up survivors.
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the Microsoft decision to buy Yahoo comes after years of failed attempts to beat Google with its own force
but, has Microsoft invested $45 billion to develop its own “MS-Google”?
it seems it haven’t, since that giant amount of money could be enough to start (from zero) TEN companies like Google or Yahoo
so, is Microsoft doing the right investment?
and… how much advertising Microsoft must sell (after the Yahoo acquisition) to earn the money invested?
.
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This is all about online ad dollars, the only web segment that will show impressive growth over the next few years.
Microsoft is smart enough to know that they missed the boat that Google is now directing and Microsoft is running scared. On the surface the Yahoo deal might seem like a smart move for MS but they are getting a company who’s best days are behind it and there are few examples of high techs regaining their former glory. For Yahoo, this deal is a well-timed life preserver and for Google it just reiterates their dominant position. If I were a Google executive I would be basking in the glow of this announcement.
I agree microsoft is willing to pay more than yahoo is worth, but I din’t like the comments of Microsoft should just stick to operating systems not XBOX etc… He is contradicting him self saying Microsof is not going to dominate OS business for very long and asking it to stick with just OS
I have used Yahoo mail long before Gmail came along…. but NOW I am switching everything over to my gmail account. I have been writing s/w since I got the BS sheepskin in ‘76…. & as a fellow citizen from Redmond, Wash…. I hate MS….
Yahoo being the #2 player in search/internet, it only makes sense for Microsoft to buy them and hope to secure the 2nd spot than being at the bottom. While Yahoo continues to maintain a strong loyal customer base, it does need serious help to stay afloat and right in the competition.
Right about Microsoft – They’re throwing bad money after good.
Wrong about Google – 5 years ago they were a search company, now they’re an analytics company. Their stock price is going to double but it’s because they are going to have access to most of our personal data and be able to deliver ultra-personalized ads.
As you say, “the OS is moving up into the cloud… and it will be a challenge to main Google’s dominance”. That challenge will come from Google who already have the best apps for ‘the cloud’ (Gmail vs Outlook).
Microsoft used to own the desktop ‘command line’. If the OS moves into the cloud, then that command line is search.
Both companies are drawn towards each other, competitively, therefore. It is impossible for them to ’stick to their knitting’.
A Google sticking to search would be like Microsoft sticking to BASIC. Search is vulnerable, there is no ’switching cost’ through signups, and its share price would be very vulnerable.
This is about the best summation of the dinosaurs that I have read. MS has shown with Vista that it has lost the plot.
I’m curious to how this will work out for the job search sites. Yahoo! owns Hotjobs.com and Microsoft is a part owner of CarrerBuilder.com.
I agree Josh, what exactly is Microsoft buying that it doesn’t ALREADY have for $45B? In these recessionary/depressionary times they could have paid half and still had them. What are they going to do with all the duplicate stuff mail, IM, search, etc. This is not going to help microsoft in any way, it will be a drain for them. They are buying an empty bag and it will suckup more money until they get rid of it–you are absolutely right. If I were Yahoo, I would accept immediately (and they will)–what a stroke of luck. No one will pay this kind of outrageous price for a waning company.
I will have to stick to Yahoo mail and massenger. Because I used it for last ten years. I do not have any plan to move to G mail anytime soon. Many many reasons. And it is the same reasons why most people stick to Windows OS. Can you see the points?
Strange, that most analysts miss the main point – complete Internet search technology purchase done by Microsoft. In two recent deals Microsoft obtained full control over the only rivalling software source code capable of scalable Internet indexing which was not owned by Google. Microsoft has shelled out 1,2 billions just 3 weeks ago for a relatively unknown search technology company FAST (Norway). FAST sold their Internet indexing and search software technology to Overture several years ago (www.alltheweb.com). Overture was acquired by Yahoo. This software code is now part of Yahoo and is driving Yahoo’s Internet index. Could it be that FAST technology was actually maintaining Yahoo’s 30% market share in the Internet search and Microsoft had just figured it out?
See PC WORLD January 12 article with Microsoft’s position on the issue:
“But cost was not the driving factor in Microsoft’s choice of FAST over other high-end search vendors in the space, according to Jeff Raikes, president of Microsoft’s business division.
Raikes insisted during a conference call Tuesday afternoon that FAST simply had the best people and technology. “
This is exactly what I thought when I saw the announcement. You take one company thats struggling to maintain their overstretched markets and add to it a company that has consistently failed and lost what little talent they had and expect somehow for there to be a great synergy? This is like Ford (another microsoft partner) when they bought Jaguar.. The synergies between two piles of dog crap just create a much worse smell.
Sorry ,Josh you really don’t understand why Msft will buy Yahoo and AOL and Timer Warner is a different story
Kudos to Josh Quittner for an outstanding article. His candor and “focused” thinking is refreshing……
Well done!
g.e.t.
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Microsoft+MSN will hurt both that too badly. Time YAHOO sheds lot of deadwood in the form of smaller business acquitions.
Whether Yahoo, Google or AOL ,real issue is revenue and profits. For Ad-revenue , you need clicks. I DONT THINK THESE CLICKS ON GOOGLE or elsewhere are as productive for advertisers as being claimed. Almost all the ads are avoided. I surf a lot on Google, never bothered to find those ‘ADWORD’ OR “ADSENSE’. HAVE YOU?