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October 31, 2007, 11:09 pm

Google vs. Facebook: Why I’m Rooting for the Kid

By Josh Quittner

I’m rooting for the kid.

It’s not an easy decision—it never makes sense to be on the other side of Google (GOOG), and I am all for open standards. But on this one, I can’t help myself, I am rooting for the kid.

Imagine starting a business that, within 18 months, goes from nothing to 50 million members. You do everything right. You take a bit of seed capital and you make all the correct decisions, you play a scratch game, you innovate, you make a big bet, and bam! You create a product that’s so compelling, you make a market where none existed.

And now imagine that a far bigger company—no, the fifth biggest company in the U.S.!—comes along and simply copies your idea. It bigfoots you and says, you know that beautiful thing you figured out? Well we’re going to do it, too. And good luck competing with us because we’re going to take your great idea, and give it away for free to our market, which happens to be twice as large as yours before we even get started here.

In so doing, it (seemingly) neutralizes you, robs you of all the value you created.

How can you NOT root for the kid on this one?

A lot of this reminds me of the Browser Wars, when Microsoft took a similar tactic with Netscape. (“You know that cool browser you created? You know how your business model hinges on selling it to people? Well we’re copying it and giving it away for free.”) Of course, Microsoft also made the mistake of tying its browser to its operating system, which cost it billions. No one can scream “monopoly!” here.

So I’m rooting for the kid. I don’t care that, in this case, ironically, he has Microsoft (MSFT) in his corner. He is still the underdog.

I hope Dave Winer is right and that tech companies who promulgate standards to undermine other tech companies usually fail. I don’t believe him in this case. The “standard” that Google is foisting on its partners is open. It’s HTML and Javascript. Facebook has the proprietary code here.

But still I am rooting for the kid. He has momentum on his side—50 million people, and so far, Google’s ploy isn’t a good reason for any of them to leave. And that means the developers will stay. I am hoping that come next Tuesday, when he lets Madison Avenue see what Facebook can do with social ads, he’ll change the game yet again. God this is fun. That’s why I’m rooting for the kid.

MS may behind Facebook now but they will absolutely never but so stupid as to pay the $10 billion or $15 billion price tag Facebook owners have placed on it, it’s completely dilusional. Instead MS will roll out their own social networking built in with MSN which will take over in the same manner MSN took over ICQ. If anyone doubts this look at what they’re already doing with XBOX. MS doesn’t have to contrain social networking to a web browser.

Google is not competing with Facebook, look at the two services side by side as a whole. Google generally has the direction of promoting education valued service, Facebook has had a direct negative influence on academic advancement. Look at millions of university students/high school students who are wasting time social advertising rather than studying. This is coupled with the rise of China and India where people pushed by the idea of rising from poverty are by and large studying harder than ever. Facebook can not survive, it’s negatives on society far outweigh it’s positive.

Posted By Eric, Victoria, Canada : March 15, 2008 5:38 pm

About Google “but at least they’re a spectacularly managed and well diversified company”

Google looks like a well diversified company. It’s popping out new applications by the minute like hotcakes but none of them is actually making any money. Google’s income is still based largely on their search engine. A Large onetrickppony.

As for Facebook. A company making 30 mlj a year worth 15 blj is what I would call a bubble waiting to burst.

Cash out now Zuckerberg and live to fight another day.

Posted By Octavio, Rotterdam, NL : November 5, 2007 9:56 am

I think Facebook will prevail as it is heavily populated by social networkers who wish to prevail in a positive environment that has not yet become a trashy environment full of teen angst like MySpace has. Yes….I think Facebook will have to join the party but the two can coexist just fine. Competition is good for our marketplace and drives innovation. If these other players were not in the market…..who knows when Google would have integrated this piece.

Posted By Doug, Missoula, MT : November 2, 2007 9:07 am

MySpace is much better. I’ve tried Facebook and I dont like anything about it.

Posted By Cindy, Boston, MA : November 2, 2007 8:55 am

In the early 90’s I rooted for AOL, but by 1995 it was obvious AOL’s time was up, because the internet was bigger and more open. Facebook is trying to go the AOL route, which is outdated and won’t work against Google’s open approach. It’s as simple as that.

Posted By veggiedude, SF, CA : November 2, 2007 8:22 am

Facebook is a useful application, but I think Mark Zuckerberg might be waiting too long to cash out. There are a number of personal friends who use the site who are beginning to leave. Far too much privacy invasion (and a trail of evidence…) for their liking. Although they’ve achieved spectacular growth, their valuation will decrease substantially the minute the user-base begins to erode. Google will face the same problem inevitably, but at least they’re a spectacularly managed and well diversified company with teriffic management…

Posted By Alex, Toronto, Ontario : November 1, 2007 12:17 pm

I’m rooting for Facebook too, but I’m a bit confused about something you wrote Quittner. How is it that apparently Facebook only happened over the last 18 months? The core of the Facebook community stretches back much farther then that to before Facebook openned its doors to non-college users and networks.

Otherwise good stuff on the post, I just think that timeline should be revised a bit. Those older users were the basis for other folks coming on board when the network openned up, as is the case with any social networking site with legs.

Posted By Kenny, New York, New York : November 1, 2007 12:13 pm

Everytime it’s open vs. proprietary I’m going to root for the open source. Open statdards are best solution for the consumers.

I think it’s pretty silly to get yourself caught being loyal to one company, be it Facebook, Google, Microsoft or any other company. Unless you are major stock holder of any of those companies, I’d root for what is best for the consumer.

Posted By KD, Madison, AL : November 1, 2007 12:12 pm

“…the fifth biggest company in the U.S…comes along and simply copies…that beautiful thing you figured out?”

Isn’t Zuckerberg himself accused of stealing a lot more than ideas?

Posted By VoiceOfReason, Los Angeles, CA : November 1, 2007 11:57 am

Why is google being a bully here..we have always been taught that bullies are no good…I am a facebook member and so are most of my friends and famliy memebers and we are loving every appliations of it…GO FACEBOOK!! We are behind you 100%.

Posted By Asenath J. Brooklyn New York : November 1, 2007 11:51 am

I’d root for the kid if it weren’t now backed by Micro$oft…

Posted By Nick, Seattle, WA : November 1, 2007 11:26 am

The one of the drawback of Facebook application is, it will work only in Facebook platform. Google figured this out and covered the gap by allowing it’s Social Applications to run on any platform which participate in Google defined framework.
I am pretty confident that Facebook will enable such feature shortly.

Posted By satish babu, Bellevue, WA : November 1, 2007 10:54 am

I think the company with the best platform should win. I won’t root for Facebook just because it’s a smaller company that Google. I currently do not use any social networking website. I personally love everything Google but if I do use a social networking website in the future, it will be the one with the best features and most effective layout.

Posted By Damion, Brooklyn NY : November 1, 2007 10:52 am

You make it sound like Rocky. However, Facebook does already have $50 million users, a $15 Billion valuation, AND Microsoft behind them. I think you are hard pressed to make the case that Facebook is not the favorite in this market.

Posted By Jordan, Chicago, IL : November 1, 2007 10:46 am

Didn’t the “kid” steal the idea from ConnectU and slow their growth? Either way it doesn’t matter to me as long as I get to poke people.

Posted By Jeff, Houston, TX : November 1, 2007 12:09 am
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