So when you do the math that equates 510.2 ad clicks per user.

Are any of you anywhere close to 510.2 ad clicks within facebook?

For reference, if you clicked on just one add a week…

… It would take you ten years, seven months, and two weeks to reach 510.2 ad-clicks.

Sure, there are lots of assumptions in this. Many analysts predict that the number of users will increase over time. Yes but overtime, many of these users will become inactive. We all know people who have drifted away from facebook after school. Also, some of the hard-core hyper active users becoming disenchanted with the different demographics coming into facebook. Also many of these new users will be in a different demographic and have different use rates then college students.

Also in my example, I said the average user clicked on an ad once a week. I believe this is overly conservative. I’ve maybe clicked on four ads in the ten months of this year (and even that I think is high). If average usage is that low (0.4 months per year) ad-years per user increases to 106 years.

So, I still don’t see the economics in facebook, let alone $15 billion in economic value. Moral of the story, enjoy all the technology being released on facebook; but if you’re offered stock in facebook take a pass.